Assessing the Impact of Unconventional Shale Hydrocarbon Resources on Changing US Strategy  in the Middle East by Using Correlation Method

Namdari, Behroz; Barzegar, Keyhan; Ghavam, SeyedAbdolali

doi:10.22126/ipes.2019.1190

Assessing the Impact of Unconventional Shale Hydrocarbon Resources on Changing US Strategy in the Middle East by Using Correlation Method

Document Type : Research

Authors

¹ Ph. D student of International Relations, Dpt. International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

² Assistant Professor of International Relations, Dpt. International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran

³ Professor of Political Science, Dpt. Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

10.22126/ipes.2019.1190

Abstract

The Arab revolutions that broke up in the Middle East in 2011 and the American inaction in stopping the chain of these revolutions and Also, imposing oil sanctions on Iran without fear of rising oil prices indicated that technological developments and increasing the volume of production from unconventional sources of shale oil and gas in the United States have challenged the importance of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf in American's economy and have led to a shift in US security policies in the region. In order to assess these changes, In this paper, the effect of the shale revolution and the expansion of oil and gas production from its unconventional hydrocarbon resources on US foreign policy in the Middle East, with an emphasis on the Persian Gulf, based on the definition of three major indicators: diplomacy, economics and military in US foreign policy and use the correlation method is evaluated. The results of the research show that as much as shale oil production has been added to US oil production, the US strategy from active balance and intervention in Middle East has changed into an offshore balance policy and so the possibility of conflicts between regional powers has increased.

Keywords

20.1001.1.23833602.1397.1.1.9.5

References

بریس، نیکلا و دیگران. (1393). تحلیل داده‌های روانشناسی با برنامه SPSS. ترجمه: خدیجه علی آبادی و علی صمدی. تهران: نشر دوران.

جکسون، رابرت و سورنسون، گئورگ. (1393). درآمدی بر روابط بین‌الملل. ترجمه: مهدی ذاکریان و دیگران. تهران: نشر میزان.

گیلپین، رابرت. (1387). اقتصاد سیاسی بین‌الملل: درک نظم اقتصاد بین‌الملل. ترجمه: مهدی میرمحمدی. تهران: انتشارت موسسه تحقیقاتی تدبیر اقتصاد.

والتز،کنت. (1394). نظریه سیاست بین الملل. ترجمه: روح الله طالبی آرانی. تهران: نشر مخاطب.

احمدی لفورکی، بهزاد. (۱۳۹۳). نفت و گاز شیل آمریکا و پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیکی آن. تهران: انتشارات موسسه ابرار معاصر.

آجیلی، هادی. (1394). ایالات‌متحده آمریکا، تکنولوژی شیل و نفت خاورمیانه. تهران: اداره نشر وزارت امور خارجه

شعرباف، جواد. (1390). «افزایش هزینه‌های نظامی ایران؛ ضرورتی انکارناپذیر»، فصلنامه علمی- پژوهشی آفاق امنیت. سال چهارم. شماره12. 97-123

زیباکلام، صادق و عرب عامری، جواد. (1393). «منابع غیرمتعارف انرژی و جایگاه خلیج‌فارس در سیاست امنیت انرژی ایالات‌متحده». فصلنامه سیاست خارجی. دوره 28. شماره1. 198-173.

درخشان، مسعود. (1391). «امنیت انرژی و تحولات آینده بازارهای نفت و گاز». فصلنامه راهبرد. شماره 64. 159-188.

آهویی مهدی. (1396). «تحول پارادایم اتحادهای آمریکا در خاورمیانه و گزینه‌های محتمل در قبال ایران». فصلنامه پژوهش‌های روابط بین‌الملل. دوره اول. شماره 23. 77-43.

References

D. Blackwill, Robert and L. O'Sullivan, Meghan. (2014). America's Energy Edge: The Geopolitical Consequences of the Shale Revolution, foreignaffairs.

Dodge Toby and Hokayem, Emile, eds. (2014). Middle Eastern security, the US pivot and the rise of ISIS. Adelphi. 447-8 International Institute for Strategic Studies. London.

D. Krasner, Stephan. (1981). Power structures and regional development banks, International Organization. vol. 35. issue 02. 303-328.

Emerson, Sarah andC. Winner, Andrew. (2014). The Myth of Petroleum Independence and Foreign Policy Isolation. WASHINGTON QUARTERLY.

Gilpin, Robert. (1981). War and Change in World Politics. UK. Cambridge. Cambridge University press.

Gilpin, Robert. (1984). The Richness of the Tradition of Political Realism, international Organization. Vol. 38, No. 2 (Spring, 1984), pp. 287-304.

Hass, Richard and Martin Indyk. (2008). Restoring the Balance: A Middle East Strategy for the Next President. Washington, DC. Brooking Institution Press

Howald, Julia &Mildner. Stormy-Annika and Westphal, Kirsten. (2013). What economies of shale for US foreign policy?. European Union Institute for Security Studies.

Klieman, Aharon. (2015). Great Powers and Geopolitics, International Affairs in a Rebalancing World. US. New York: Springer International Publishing.

Leverett, F & Leverett, M. (2012). The Balance of Power, Public Goods, and the Lost Art of Grand Strategy, American Policy toward the Persian Gulf and Rising Asia in the 21st Century. Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs, 1(2).

Mersheimer, J. & Walt, S. (2016). The Case for Offshore Balancing, A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy. Foreign Plicy, pp. 70-83.

Nader Ibrahim M. Bani Nasur. (2016). The United States and the Security of the Arab Gulf States. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, Vol 6. No. 11, November.

Rynhold, J. (2014). American Grand Strategy and the Arab-Israeli Conflict, Bar-Ilan University. American Political Science Association Annual Conference, Washington, DC.

Serwer, Daniel. (2016). Recalculating U.S. Policy in the Middle East: Less Military, More Civilian. Middle East Institute, April.

Strange, Susan. (1996). The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the world Economy. UK. Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.

T.Klare, Michael. (2015). From Scarcity to Abundance: The ChangingDynamics of Energy Conflic. Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs, Volume 3. Issue 2.

Waltz, Kenneth. (1979). Theory of International Politics. US. University of California. Berkeley

Walt, Stephen M. (2005). Taming American Power: The Global Response t U.S. Primacy. US. New York: Norton.

http://ucdp.uu.se/state base

http://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/background

https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/97d22bee-1681-4a6b-9362-79ac07542589.pdf

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/travels/president

https://www.bea.gov/

https://www.eia.gov

https://www.thebalance.com/active-duty-3332036

https://www.usaid.gov/