The Effect of Election Cycles on the size of Government in Plitically Developed and Politically Developing Selected Countries

Document Type : Research

Authors

1 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran,

2 M.A of Change Management, Department of Management, E-Campus Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran.

3 M.A of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran.

Abstract

This study, inspired by Peacock and Wiseman’s theory, attributes government size to political factors. The current study aims to analyze the effect of election cycles (election year, government ideology, Coalition and minority government) on government of size in selected developed and developing countries over the period (2002-2018). Statistical society includes twelve developing countries as a sample group and twelve developed countries as a control group. The research model has been estimated by using panel data and the generalized method of moments (GMM).The results showed that the election year and Coalition has had a positive and significant in both groups of selected countries on government of size. The minority government has had a negative and significant in both groups of selected countries on government of size. However, the effect of government's ideology index on government of size index in developed countries has had a positive and significant, while it was insignificant in developing countries. Furtheremore,, controlled variables, economic growth, openness of the economy, degree of urbanization and the index of misery on government of size were positive and significant. The effect of natural resource abundance on the size of government has been positive and significant in developing countries, while it was insignificant in developed countries.

Keywords


References
Abizadeh, S. & Yusuf, M. (1988). Growth of government expenditure: The case of‌ Canada. Public Finance Quarterly, 16(1), 78-100.
Afonso, A. & Jalles, T. J. (2011). Economic performance and government size. ΕΧΒ Working Paper Series, No1399.
Akbarian, ‌R. & Karkon, M (2013). The relation between openness and g‌overnment size. Journal of Economics Research, 13(48), 79-107. (In Persian)
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons Inc, 3rd Edition, New York, USA.
Amiri, H. & Samadian, F. (2020). The impact of electoral cycle occurrence on macroeconomic environment: Case study of Iran. Planning and Budgeting Quarterly, 25(2), 3-24. (In Persian)
Arrow, K. J. (1951b, 2nd ed. 1963). Social choice and individual values.Wiley, New York.
Aydogus, I. & Topcu, M. (2013). An investigation of co integration and causality between trade openness and government size inTurkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(2), 319-323.
Benarroch, M. & Pandey, M. (2008). Trade openness and government size. Journal of Economics Letters, 101; 157-159.
Brender, A. & Drazen, A. (2005). Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(7), 1271–1295.
Brender, A. & Drazen, A. (2013). Elections, leaders, and the composition of government spending. Journal of Public Economics, 97(1), 18–31.
Budge, I & Woldendorp, H. (1993). Political data 1945-1990: Party government in 20 democracies.European Journal ofPolitical Research, 24(1), 1-119.
Canes-Wrone, B. & De Leon, C. P. (2014). Elections, uncertainty, and economic outcomes, April 2014, Seminar Presentations at the University of British Columbia and Vancouver.
Cerda, R. & Vergara, R. (2007). Government subsidies and presidential election outcomes: evidence for an eveloping country.World Development, 36(11), 2470–2488.
Chang, E. C. (2008). Electoral incentives and budgetary spending: Rethinking the role of political institutions. Journal of Politics, 70(4), 1086–1097.
Cologni, A. & Manera, M. (2013). Exogenous oil shocks, fiscal policy and sector reallocation in oil producing countries. Energy Economics, 35(C), 42-57.
‌Drazen, A. & Eslava, M. (2010). Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence.Journal of Development Economics, 92(1), 39-52.
Dubois, E. (2016). Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus. Public Choice, 166(1-2), 235-259.
Ebeke, C. & Ölçer, D. (2013). Fiscal policy over the election cycle in Low-Income Countries. ‌2013IMF Working Papers, 13(153), 1-24.
Ehrhart, H. (2013). Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries. Public Choice, 156(1-2), 195–211.
Englmaier, F., Roider, A., Stowasser, T. & Hinreiner, L. (2017). Power Politics: Electoral Cycles in German Electricity Prices. <https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/ 10419/168267/1/VfS-2017-pid-3503.pdf>.
Epifani, P. & Gancia, G. (2009). Openness, government size and the terms of trade. The Review ofEconomic Studies, 76 (2), 629-668.
Falahi, M. A., Khodaparast Mashhadi, M., Salimifar, M. & Haghnejad, A. (2011). Relationship between economic growth and government size in selected OPEC countries: A multivariate analysis using panel data techniques. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 8(2), 79-94. (In Persian)
Franzese, R. (2000). Electoral and partisan manipulation of public debt in developed democracies, 1956–1990. Institutions, Politics and Fiscal Policy. Kluwer Academic Press, Dordrecht, 61–83.
‌Gokmenoglu, K. & Alptekin, V. (2013). Re-examination of Wagner’s lawfor OECD countries. Annals of the constantin Brancusi University of Targujiu, Economy Series Issue 1/2013, Academica Brancusi Publisher, ISSN 1844–7007.
Golmohammadi, A. (2015). Weberian definition of the State. Quarterly the State Studies, 1(1), 58-80. (In Persian)
Gupta, K. (2000). An inquiry in to determinants of size in developing countries and related issues of socioeconomic development, State University New York at Stony Brook.
Han, S. & Mulligan, C. B. (2008). Inflation and the size of government. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 90(3‌2), 245-267.
Hanifi, F. & Gholamlou, G. (2014). The effect of the political cycle on the Tehran Stock market trading volume and liquidity. Investment Knowledge Quarterly, 3(10), 151-166. (In Persian)
Huang, C. J. (2006). Government expenditure in China and Taiwan: Do they follow Wagner’s Law? Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), 139-148.
Hibbs J, D. A. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy, American Political Science Review, 71(4), 1467–1487.
‌Katsimi, M. & Sarantides, V. (2012). Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies? Public Choice, 151(1-2), 325–362.
Mohseni, G., Adousi, ‌H., Khastar, H. & Shabani, M. (2013). The effects of presidential cycle on stock market returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. Financial Research, 15(35), 95–108. (In Persian)
Morrozumii, A., Veiga F.J. & Veiiga, L. G. (2014). Electoral effects on the composition of public spending and revenue: Evidence form a large panel of countries.Discussion Papers 2014/16, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
Narayan, S., Rath, B. N. & Narayan, P.K. (2012). Evidence of Wagner's Law from Indian States. Economic Modelling 29(5), 1548–1557.
Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle, Review of Economic Studies, 42(2), 169–19.
Peacock, A. T. & J. Wiseman. (1961). Thegrowth of public expenditure in the United Kingdom, Princeton: Princeton Uniersity Press.
‌Persson. T. & Tabellini. G. (2003). Do electoral cycles differ across political systems? Working Paper, Stockholm University and Bocconi University.
Pourkazemi, M. H., Darvishi, B. & Shahikitash, M. N. (2007). Political business cycle (case study of Iran). Economic Studies, 4(4), 137-160. (In Persian)
Potrafke, N. (2009). Did globalization restrict partisan politics? An empirical evaluation of social expenditures in a panel of OECD countries.Public Choice, Springer, 140(1), 105-124.
Rogoff, K. & Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economic Studies, 55(1), 1–16.
Romer, T. & Rosenthal, H. (1979). The elusive median voter. Journal of Public Economics, 12(2), 143-170.
Shahabadi, A., Naziri, M. K. & Nilforoushan, N. (2012). The effect of electoral cycles on the growth of public health expenditures in selected developing and developed countries (1994-2010). Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 3(9), 95-116. (In Persian)
Shahabadi A., Nilforoushan, N. & Khaleghi M. (2016). The effect of political cycle on unemployment growth rate in selected developed and developing countries. Planning and Budgeting Quarterly, 20(4), 3-30. (In Persian)
Shi, M. & Svensson, J. (2006). Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why? Journal of Public Economics, 90(8-9), 1367–1389.
Taghinezhad Omran's, V. & Shahroozifar, Z. (1391). The impact of trade openness on government size: The case study of lower middle income country group (2000-2006). Iraniian Journal of Trade Studies, 17(65), 167-180. (In Persian)
‌‌Zakaria, M. & Shakoor, S. (2011). Relationship between government size and trade openness: Evidence from Pakistan. Transition Studies Review, 18(2), 328-341.