The changing geo-economic order of the Caspian region; The opportunity of multilateralism in Iran's economic diplomacy

Document Type : Research

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of International Relations, National Defence University, Tehran, I.R.Iran.

2 Master's student in Political Science, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, I.R. Iran.

3 Master's student in Political Science, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Political Science, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, I.R. Iran.

Abstract

The geo-economic order of the Caspian region is experiencing changing conditions in the complex competition of world powers. In the past, this region mostly witnessed the dominance of one or two world powers, but now India and China, with defined plans, the United States, with the development of its traditional economic scope, and Russia, with anti-sanctions tools, are changing every part of this order. Along with these big actors, smaller regional powers like Turkey are also trying to change the existing conditions in their favor. The main problem of the current research is the investigation of the factors and developments affecting the geo-economic order of the Caspian region and the explanation of the opportunity for the advancement of Iran's economic diplomacy. The strategic importance of this research is related to providing a realistic understanding of global developments and affecting the geo-economic order of the Caspian region. The key question in this article is what opportunities will this changing order bring to the Islamic Republic of Iran? It seems that the hypothesis can be put forward that Iran, in this changing order, can bring the opportunity of developed multilateralism to the Islamic Republic of Iran. The research findings clearly show this developed multilateralism. While Iran can connect India to the region, it can also play a role in China's Belt and Road initiative. At the same time, while it can transfer Turkmenistan's gas to Azerbaijan and even Europe, it can improve its institutional foundations of economic diplomacy in Shanghai and the Eurasian Economic Union, and also implement new anti-sanction mechanisms with sanctioned Russia in the geo-economic context of the Caspian Sea.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

جعفری، علی‌اکبر؛ ملکی، ماری (۱۳۹۹). معادله سیاست خارجی ایران و روسیه در معمای انرژی خزر. سیاست جهانی، ۹ (۴) (پیاپی 34)، 101-134. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/952402/fa
حلال‌خور، مهرداد؛ سعیدی راد، آرش (۱۴۰۱). روندهای کلان جهانی؛ تحول و گسترش ژئواکونومیک دریای خزر. فصلنامه روابط خارجی، 14 (۱)، 159-181. doi: 10.22034/fr.2022.153257
دامن‌پاک جامی، مرتضی (۱۳۹۷). دیپلماسی اقتصادی جمهوری اسلامی ایران: روندها و تحولات، فرصت‌ها و چالش‌های پس از توافق هسته‌ای. تهران: وزارت امور خارجه.
راسخی، سعید؛ حسینی، میرعبدالله (۱۳۹۶). ارزیابی همگرایی اقتصادی منطقه‌ای حوزه دریای خزر. مطالعات اوراسیای مرکزی، 10 (۱)، 67-83. doi: 10.22059/jcep.2017.62900
سیمبر، رضا؛ افشاریان، کیوان (۱۳۹۹). تبیین دستور کار همگرایی منطقه دریای خزر با تأکید بر وابستگی‌های متقابل. فصلنامه علمی مطالعات آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، ۲۶ (۱۰۹)، ۷۱-۱۰۱.
شاهون‌وند، محمد (۱۴۰۳). انتقال گاز طبیعی حوزه خزر به بازارهای شرقی، رویکرد نظریه بازی. فصلنامه جامعه و سیاست، ۲ (۵)، ۶۳-۷۶.
صالح اصفهانی، اصغر؛ قادرپناه، فریبرز؛ بیک، علی‌اصغر؛ شفقت رودسری، آریا (۱۴۰۲). راهبردهای دفاعی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در دریای خزر با تأکید بر نقش عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی جهت ارتقا امنیت و توسعه پایدار دریایی. فصلنامه علمی آموزش علوم دریایی، ۱۰ (۳۲)، ۱۵۲-۱۴۴.
طباطبایی، سید محمد؛ حسینی، سید محمدحسین (۱۳۹۹). تأثیر ژنوم ژئوپلیتیک کشورهای ساحلی حوزه خزر بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. دانش سیاسی، 16(۲)، 461-486. doi: 10.30497/pk.2020.75408
عراقچی، سید عباس؛ بیک بیلندی، علی‌اصغر (۱۳۹۷). تأثیر عوامل ژئوپلیتیک اقتصادی دریای خزر بر تدوین راهبرد دفاعی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. مطالعات دفاعی استراتژیک، ۱۶ (۷۲)، ۹۹-۱۲۴.
فولادچی، فاطمه؛ مهدوی، مسعود؛ کردوانی، پرویز (۱۳۹۷). اثرات اقتصادی فرودگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره) در توسعه سکونت‌گاه‌های روستایی شهرستان رباط‌کریم. فصلنامه اقتصاد فضا و توسعه روستایی، ۷ (۳)، پیاپی ۲۵، ۱-۲۲.
قاسمی، حاکم؛ ناظری، زهرا (۱۳۹۰). تحولات ژئوپلیتیک در حوزه دریای خزر و تغییر نقش قدرت‌های بزرگ در این منطقه. فصلنامه بین‌المللی ژئوپلیتیک، ۷ (۲۳)، ۱۳۶-۱۷۳.
نامی، محمدحسن (۱۳۸۹). جایگاه دریایی خزر در استراتژی‌های جهانی با تأکید بر قرن ۲۱. تهران: زیتون سبز.
References
Aggarwal, V. K., & Reddie, A. W. (2021). Economic statecraft in the 21st century: Implications for the future of the global trade regime. World Trade Review, 20(Special Issue 2), 137–151.
Amir Mohammad, M., & Abbas, M. (2024). China's energy diplomacy in the Caspian Basin and its impact on the energy security of Europe. Energy Strategy Reviews, 51, 101202. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2024.01.070
Araqchi, S. A., & Beik Bailandi, A. A. (2018). The impact of geopolitical and economic factors of the Caspian Sea on the formulation of the defense strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strategic Defense Studies, 16(72), 99–124 (In Persian).
Atlas. (2024). Russia-India trade to boom via Iran using INSTC route. https://atlas-network.com/russia-india-trade-to-boom-via-iran-using-instc-route/
Aydin, U. (2021). Barriers and solutions to economic integration of Caspian Sea countries. Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, No. 1108.
Aydin, U., & Azhgaliyeva, D. (2019). Assessing energy security in the Caspian region: The geopolitical implications for European energy strategy. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/532701/adbi-wp1011.pdf
Babic, M., Dixon, A. D., & Liu, I. T. (2022). Geoeconomics in a changing global order. In M. Babić, A. D. [Details incomplete – need publication info].
Benson, B. (2024). North-South corridor is ringing up nice numbers for Russia. https://eurasianet.org/north-south-corridor-ringing-up-nice-numbers-for-russia
Britannica. (2024). Shanghai Cooperation Organization. https://www.britannica.com/topic/Shanghai-Cooperation-Organization
Bykov, A. (2016). The Eurasian Economic Union: Challenges and opportunities. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 7(2), 289–302.
Caspian Policy Center. (2024). Azerbaijan and Türkiye nudge Turkmenistan westward. https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/security-and-politics-program-spp/azerbaijan-and-turkiye-nudge-turkmenistan-westward
Chedia, A. R. (2024). Zangezur Corridor: Economic potential and political constraints. Russia in Global Affairs, 22(1), 194–216.
Chernyshevskaya, I. (2022). How has the mutual trade of Central Asia with Ukraine and Russia changed? https://cabar.asia/en/how-has-mutual-trade-of-central-asia-with-ukraine-and-russia-changed
Council of the European Union. (2023). Impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy
Crude Accountability. (2018). Investigating Chinese investments. https://crudeaccountability.org/what-we-do/chinese-investments/
Daily Sabah. (2024). An agreement reached on the transportation of Turkmen gas to Türkiye. https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/agreement-reached-on-transportation-of-turkmen-gas-to-turkiye
Damanpak Jami, M. (2018). Economic diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Trends and developments, opportunities and challenges after the nuclear agreement. Tehran: Ministry of Foreign Affairs (In Persian).
Dixon, A. D., & Liu, I. T. (Eds.). (2022). The political economy of geoeconomics: Europe in a changing world (1st ed., pp. 1–27). Palgrave Macmillan. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-01968-5_1
Dumoulin, M., & Gressel, G. (2023). The war of opportunity: How Azerbaijan’s offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh is shifting the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. https://ecfr.eu/article/the-war-of-opportunity-how-azerbaijans-offensive-against-nagorno-karabakh-is-shifting-the-geopolitics-of-the-south-caucasus/
Energies Journal. (2024). Analysing the connection between economic growth, conventional energy, and renewable energy: A comparative analysis of the Caspian countries. Energies, 17(1), 253. doi: 10.3390/en17010253
Energies Journal. (2024). The role of renewable energy in economic development: Insights from the Caspian region's transition strategies. Energies, 17(2), 345–367. doi: 10.3390/en17020345
Eurasian Rail Alliance Index. (2024). North-South corridor: New opportunities for Russian foreign trade. https://index1520.com/en/analytics/koridor-sever-yug-novye-vozmozhnosti-dlya-vneshney-torgovli-rossii/
Eurasianet. (2023). China eclipses Russia as Central Asia’s top trade partner in 2023. Retrieved from https://eurasianet.org/china-eclipses-russia-as-central-asias-top-trade-partner-in-2023
European Commission. (2024). EU trade with Russia – latest developments. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=EU_trade_with_Russia_-_latest_developments
Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79.
Fernandez-Arias, N., Musso, A., Osorio-Buitron, C., & Popescu, A. (2024). Emerging markets are exercising greater global sway. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/09/emerging-markets-are-exercising-greater-global-sway
Fouladchi, F., Mahdavi, M., & Kordavani, P. (2018). The economic effects of Imam Khomeini International Airport (RA) on the development of rural settlements in Rabat Karim city. Quarterly Journal of Space Economy and Rural Development, 7(3), 1–22 (In Persian).
Future of the global trade regime. World Trade Review, 20(2), 137–151.
Gasimli, V. (2021). Opinion: The ‘Zangezur Corridor’ is a geo-economic revolution. https://emerging-europe.com/opinion/the-zangezur-corridor-is-a-geo-economic-revolution/
Gertz, G., & Evers, M. M. (2020). Geoeconomic competition: Will state capitalism win? The Washington Quarterly, 43(2), 117–136.
Ghasemi, H., & Nazeri, Z. (2011). Geopolitical developments in the Caspian Sea area and changing the role of great powers in this region. International Quarterly of Geopolitics, 7(23), 136–173 (In Persian).
Hafeznia, M., & Kaviyanirad, M. (2014). Philosophy of political geography (1st ed.). Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies (In Persian).
Halalkhor, M., & Saidi Rad, A. (2022). Global macro trends; Geoeconomic development and expansion of the Caspian Sea. Foreign Relations Quarterly, 14(1), 159–181. doi: 10.22034/fr.2022.153257 (In Persian)
Horner, R., & Nadvi, K. (2018). Global value chains and the rise of the Global South: Unpacking twenty-first century polycentric trade. Global Networks, 18(2), 207–237.
Ibadoghlu, G. (2024). Russia's energy interests in Azerbaijan. EconStor. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/302055/1/Gubad-Ibadoghlu-Russias-Energy-Interests-in-Azerbaijan-2024.pdf
Jaeger, B. C., & Brites, P. V. P. (2020). Geoeconomics in the light of international political economy: A theoretical discussion. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 40, 22–36.
Jafari, A. A., & Maleki, M. (2019). The foreign policy equation of Iran and Russia in the Caspian energy puzzle. World Politics, 9(4, Sec. 34), 101–134. https://sid.ir/paper/952402/fa (In Persian)
Kasim, K. (2021). The impact of Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan energy cooperation on the Caspian energy security. Abant Social Sciences Journal, 21(3), 945–960. doi: 10.12345/assj.v21i3.12345
Kaura, V. (2024). India and the Greater Caspian Region. https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/guest-contributions/india-and-the-greater-caspian-region
Khan, Z., Khan, K., & Koch, H. (2023). Aggregating an economic model and GIS to explore trade potentials of India-Caspian countries and a way forward for INSTC. Resources, Global, 7, 100–154. doi: 10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100154
Lahiri, I. (2024). Taking care of business: How Kyrgyzstan became Moscow's middle man. Retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/09/30/taking-care-of-business-how-kyrgyzstan-became-moscows-middle-man
Li, Y., & Chen, Z. (2022). The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on regional integration in Central Asia. Journal of Contemporary China, 31(133), 79–96.
Luttwak, E. N. (1990). From geopolitics to geo-economics: Logic of conflict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, 20, 17–23.
Mattlin, M., & Wigell, M. (2016). Geoeconomics in the context of restive regional powers. Asia Europe Journal, 14, 125–134.
McNally, C. A. (2020). Chaotic mélange: Neo-liberalism and neo-statism in the age of Sino-capitalism. Review of International Political Economy, 27(2), 281–301.
Meunier, S., & Nicolaidis, K. (2019). The geopoliticization of European trade and investment policy. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 57(S1), 103–113.
Moghani, A., & Maleki, A. (2024). China’s energy diplomacy in the Caspian Basin and its impact on the energy security of Europe. Energy Reports, 11, 2279–2294. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2024.01.070
Mohammadi, M., Shahparvari, S., & Soleimani, H. (2021). Multi-modal cargo logistics distribution problem: Decomposition of the stochastic risk-averse models. Computers & Operations Research, 131, 105280. doi: 10.1016/j.cor.2021.105280
Mojtahedzadeh, P. (2007). Iranian democracy and identity. Tehran: Kavir Publications (In Persian).
Mokhtari Hashi, H. (2018). Explain the concept of geoeconomics; Geopolitical economics and recommendations for Iran. Geopolitics Quarterly, 14(2[50]), 56–82 (In Persian).
Nami, M. H. (2010). The position of the Caspian Sea in global strategies with an emphasis on the 21st century. Tehran: Zeitun Sabz (In Persian).
Nelson, H. (2023). 2022 FDI in the Caspian Region. Caspian Policy Center. Retrieved from https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/economy/2022-fdi-in-the-caspian-region
Observer Research Foundation. (n.d.). The Middle Corridor: Reviving connectivity for EU-Central Asia trade and India's strategic imperative. Retrieved from https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-middle-corridor-reviving-connectivity-for-eu-central-asia-trade-and-india-s-strategic-imperative
Popławski, M. (2024). Crisis as an opportunity: A new stage in EU-Central Asia relations. Retrieved from https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-04-26/ crisis-opportunity-a-new-stage-eu-central-asia-relations
Raskhi, S., & Hosseini, M. A. (2017). Assessment of the regional economic convergence of the Caspian Sea basin. Central Eurasian Studies, 10(1), 67–83. doi: 10.22059/jcep.2017.62900 (In Persian)
Robert Lansing Institute. (2023). China’s strategic interplay in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. Retrieved from https://lansinginstitute.org/2023/12/29/chinas-strategic-interplay-in-the-caspian-sea-and-central-asia/
Roberts, A. M. H. C., & Ferguson, V. (2018). The geoeconomic world order. Lawfare Blog, 19.
Saleh Esfahani, A., Qadir Panah, F., Beyk, A. A., & Shafqat Roudsari, A. (2023). Defense strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Caspian Sea with an emphasis on the role of geopolitical factors to promote maritime security and sustainable development. Scientific Quarterly Journal of Marine Science Education, 10(32), 144–152 (In Persian).
Samar, S. (2024). Trade volume between Russia and Central Asia increases amid Western sanctions. Retrieved from https://daryo.uz/en/2024/05/23/trade-volume-between-russia-and-central-asia-increases-amid-western-sanctions
Schneider-Petsinger, M. (2016). Geoeconomics explained. Chatham House, 9.
Schulz, D. (2022). China’s growing involvement in the Caspian Region. Retrieved from https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/security-and-politics-program-spp/chinas-growing-involvement-in-the-caspian-region
Shahunvand, M. (2024). The transfer of natural gas from the Caspian basin to eastern markets: A game theory approach. Society and Politics Quarterly, 2(5), 63–76 (In Persian).
Shchedrov, I. (2024). India and Russia in Central Asia: Opening the doors of perception. Retrieved from https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-and-russia-in-central-asia-opening-the-doors-of-perception
Simbar, R., & Afsharian, K. (2019). Clarifying the convergence agenda of the Caspian Sea region with an emphasis on interdependence. Scientific Quarterly of Central Asia and Caucasus Studies, 26(109), 71–101 (In Persian).
Tabatabai, S. M., & Hosseini, S. M. H. (2019). The influence of the geopolitical genome of the Caspian coastal countries on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Political Science, 16(2), 461–486. doi: 10.30497/pk.2020.75408 (In Persian)
UN Comtrade Database. (2023). Free access to detailed global trade data.
Vakulchuk, R., & Overland, I. (2023). China's Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia: Ambitions, risks, and realities. Asian Survey, 63(1), 114–138.
Valighlizadeh, A., & Zaki, Y. (2008–2009). Study of Iran geopolitics & geoeconomics position for CIS. Geopolitics Quarterly, 4(3[18]), 21–56 (In Persian).
World Bank Group. (2023). Middle Corridor through Central Asia, Caucasus can boost trade, connectivity and supply chain resilience, says new report. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/11/27/middle-corridor-through-central-asia-caucasus-can-boost-trade-connectivity-and-supply-chain-resilience
World Meter. (2024). The Central Asia population. Retrieved from https://www.worldometers. info/world-population/central-asia-population/
Yan, D. (2021). Economic cooperation under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Achievements and prospects. China International Studies, May/June 2021.
Zajtsev, V. K., & Pavlova, E. G. (2005). Environmental geopolitics of the Caspian basin energy interactions. As cited in Naderi Beni et al. (2013). Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11(2), 205–216.
Zaki, Y., & Gholizadeh, V. (2009). Investigation and analysis of Iran's geopolitical and geoeconomic status for CIS countries. Geopolitics Quarterly, 3, 21–56 (In Persian).
International Political Economy Studies
Volume 8, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
September 2025
Pages 131-152

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 12 September 2024
  • Revise Date: 01 December 2024
  • Accept Date: 22 February 2025

Share

How to cite

Statistics