Assessing the Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade War on Iran: Political, Economic, and Cultural Aspects

One of the most important geoeconomic developments is the US–China trade war; this competition has not been purely economic and has political, technological, and cultural aspects. This research aims to analyze the political, economic, and cultural aspects of this war and its effects on Iran, 2018 - 2025. The main question of this research is to investigate the consequences of the geoeconomic situation, foreign relations, and economic structure of Iran. This study is based on a combined theoretical framework including geoeconomic realism, asymmetric interdependence, and modern mercantilism. The findings indicate that Iran has benefited from the gap between U.S-China to expand its interaction with the East by taking measures such as a 25- year agreement with China and joining in Shanghai. Iran has also increased exports to China with an oil discount, but due to the sanctions, it couldn’t take advantage of exchange opportunities in the supply chain and the American market, and in spite of concerns about technological dependence, digital cooperation with China has increased. In total, Iran’s foreign policy, considering the balance between East and West, should focus on the national interest based on strategic independence, sectoral diversity of partners, and strengthening domestic technological capabilities.

Introduction

The trade war between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, which began in 2018 with the imposition of extensive trade tariffs, has gradually become one of the most significant geoeconomic trends in the international system over the past decade. This conflict has not been limited to tariff disputes; rather, it has expanded into areas such as foreign investment, advanced technologies, global supply chains, and even identity-based and cultural competition. The consequences of this trade war have affected not only the two main powers but also third countries, particularly developing states and those facing political–economic pressures, including Iran. Owing to its specific geopolitical position, an energy-dependent economic structure, and exposure to U.S. sanctions, Iran has been influenced by both the direct and indirect effects of this conflict. Within this context, the main question of the present study is what political, economic, and cultural–technological opportunities and threats the U.S.–China trade war has created for Iran, and how Iran can manage these developments in order to secure its national interests.

Theoretical Framework

To conduct a multidimensional analysis of the impacts of the U.S.–China trade war on Iran, this study adopts a composite theoretical framework. First, geoeconomic realism, which emphasizes the linkage between power and economics, explains how states employ economic instruments such as tariffs, sanctions, technology controls, and investment policies to advance geopolitical objectives. From this perspective, the U.S.–China trade war constitutes part of hegemonic competition within a transitioning global order. Second, the theory of asymmetric interdependence provides a basis for analyzing unequal economic relationships, demonstrating that in conditions of interdependence, the actor that incurs higher costs from severing ties occupies a weaker position. This approach is particularly important for analyzing Iran–China relations under sanctions. Third, neo-mercantilism highlights the active role of the state in supporting domestic industries, industrial policy, and controlling foreign trade, and is useful for understanding China’s economic policies and the implications of Iran’s cooperation with a state-centered power. The combination of these three approaches enables a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s position within the geoeconomic competition of major powers.

Method

Methodologically, this study is qualitative and descriptive–analytical in nature. Data have been collected through library and documentary research, including academic studies, international reports from institutions such as the World Bank, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund, official trade statistics, and relevant domestic and international research. Data analysis has been conducted using an inferential approach within the integrated theoretical framework. The temporal scope of the study covers the period from 2018 to 2025, encompassing developments before and after the onset of the trade war, the administrations of Trump and Biden, and the renewed escalation of tensions in 2025.

Discussion and Findings

The findings indicate that the U.S.–China trade war has generated multilayered impacts on Iran across three main dimensions. In the political dimension, Iran has sought to benefit from the strategic rift between Washington and Beijing by deepening its relations with China and other Asian powers. The signing of the 25-year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement with China and Iran’s permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization exemplify this approach and have contributed to strengthening Iran’s regional and international standing. Nevertheless, excessive concentration on a single eastern pole entails the risk of increased political dependency and reduced diversification in Iran’s foreign policy.In the economic dimension, although Iran’s exports to China have increased in recent years, this growth has largely relied on energy exports and raw materials sold under mandatory discounts. Due to sanctions, political uncertainty, and institutional constraints, Iran has been unable to exploit opportunities arising from the relocation of global supply chains and the attraction of foreign direct investment in the same way as countries such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico. Conversely, Iran’s dependence on imports of intermediate goods and industrial equipment from China has increased, which may weaken the country’s economic bargaining power in the long term. In the cultural and technological dimension, the expansion of scientific and academic interactions and the use of Chinese technologies and platforms in Iran are evident. While this trend may facilitate Iran’s short-term access to alternatives to Western technologies, in the long run, it raises concerns regarding technological dependency, cybersecurity, and the erosion of the country’s digital, cultural, and technological autonomy.

Conclusion

The results of the study demonstrate that the U.S.–China trade war simultaneously presents Iran with multidimensional opportunities and threats. Iran has been able to take advantage of competition among major powers to strengthen relations with the East and reduce Western political pressures; however, due to structural and sanction-related constraints, its economic gains from this conflict have remained limited. Accordingly, the optimal strategy for Iran is neither unilateral reliance on the East nor a simple return to past patterns, but rather the adoption of a balanced policy that preserves strategic autonomy, diversifies economic partners, strengthens domestic technological capabilities, and actively participates in regional and global value chains. Only within such a framework can Iran define an active, flexible, and national interest–oriented position in the emerging economic order shaped by U.S.–China competition.
Ethical Considerations
Not applicable
Funding
Not applicable
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest